Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 53%, yet the head-to-head data favours Molde — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Molde in Eliteserien (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Molde's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Molde have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.40 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and Molde's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 70% of Molde's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Molde have the stronger record — 3 wins to Sarpsborg 08 FF's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2023, ended Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–5 Molde — a Molde win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Molde have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% and Molde 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 71% | Molde 71%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sarpsborg 08 FF surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Molde have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50 xG and Molde 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.375 / defence 1.157 | Molde attack 1.151 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Sarpsborg 08 FF carry an above-average attack rating of 1.375 — their 2.50 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 58 games and Molde's last 58.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 19% | Molde 28%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.87 | Draw 5.29 | Molde 3.60. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 77% | Total xG 4.31. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.31 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% — both xG figures (2.50 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.31 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and Molde's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sarpsborg 08 FF 90% (last 10 home games) | Molde 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 29 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 19% | Molde 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% (Under 20%) | BTTS Yes 77% (No 23%) | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50 / Molde 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.375 / def 1.157 | Molde attack 1.151 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Molde xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde FAQs
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 3 Molde.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 29) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 53% chance of winning, Molde a 28% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 1.38x the league average against Molde's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.15x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 58 games and Molde's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
53%
1.87
19%
5.29
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
3 – 1
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
4.31
1.81
Molde xG
1.87
53%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.30
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
8%
12.24
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
2%
44.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.81 for Molde, a combined total of 4.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 24W 10D 24L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Molde's form line: 39W 8D 11L from 58 games, 2.16 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 29 home games (14W 5D 10L).
On the road, Molde have gone 18W 5D 6L from their last 29 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.28 scored and 1.07 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Molde in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF (Home) vs Molde (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde Form FAQs
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 24W 10D 24L in their last 58 games (1.41 PPG), while Molde have gone 39W 8D 11L in their last 58 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.62 PPG; Molde away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Molde in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 2 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won Molde 5-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
Draws
4
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Molde have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2026: Molde 3-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 62% for Molde — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 66% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 62% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 66% of Molde's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 76% of Molde's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Molde cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-3 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50 xG and Molde 1.81 xG, a combined 4.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Molde outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.38 / defence 1.16 against Molde attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 19% | Molde 28%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Molde win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 71%, Molde 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.