Haugesund 0-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 41%, yet in-form Brann provide a compelling counter-argument — this Haugesund vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Brann travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 5W 0D 5L at Haugesund Sparebank Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Brann have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Brann are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haugesund register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Brann in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Haugesund, 2 for Brann and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Brann winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Brann trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 52% versus Brann 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 52% | Brann 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.44 xG and Brann 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.989 / defence 0.998 | Brann attack 0.927 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.807 / away 1.385. Data: 57 Haugesund games / 27 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 41% | Draw 26% | Brann 34%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Brann 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 70% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 41% | Draw 26% | Brann 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Haugesund 1.44 / Brann 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.989 / def 0.998 | Brann attack 0.927 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.807 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Brann xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Brann kick off?
Haugesund vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Haugesund 0 - 2 Brann.
Where is Haugesund vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Brann part of?
Haugesund vs Brann is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 41% chance of winning, Brann a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Haugesund and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
Record (5 meetings): Haugesund 3W | Draws 0 | Brann 2W.
What form are Haugesund and Brann in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Brann (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.99) and Brann's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.91
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.73
1.28
Brann xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.28 for Brann, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 8W 6D 13L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 17W 4D 6L from 27 games, 2.04 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Brann have gone 6W 2D 5L from 13 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.81 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Brann in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 8W 6D 13L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while Brann have gone 17W 4D 6L in their last 27 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Brann away?
Haugesund's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.54 PPG; Brann away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Brann specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Brann have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 69%, Brann 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Haugesund) and 46% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Brann in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Haugesund's games and 54% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Haugesund's recent games and 46% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Brann tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Brann in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Haugesund 0-2 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.44 xG and Brann 1.28 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Brann attack 0.93 / defence 0.81, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 41% | Draw 26% | Brann 34%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 52%, Brann 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brann's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Brann (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.