Aalesund 0-4 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Color Line Stadion plays host to Aalesund versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aalesund have posted 3W 2D 5L at Color Line Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Viking have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Viking's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Aalesund 1W, Viking 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2023, ended 1–3 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Viking — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 52% and Viking 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 62% | Viking 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.18 xG and Viking 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.715 / defence 1.179 | Viking attack 0.861 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Aalesund games / 58 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 32% | Draw 26% | Viking 41%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Aalesund 50% | Viking 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 32% | Draw 26% | Viking 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Aalesund 1.18 / Viking 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.715 / def 1.179 | Viking attack 0.861 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Viking (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Viking xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Viking kick off?
Aalesund vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Viking?
Aalesund 0 - 4 Viking.
Where is Aalesund vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Viking part of?
Aalesund vs Viking is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 32% chance of winning, Viking a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Aalesund and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Viking?
Record (5 meetings): Aalesund 1W | Draws 1 | Viking 3W.
What form are Aalesund and Viking in?
Aalesund (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Viking (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Viking's attack (0.86x) against Aalesund's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
32%
3.10
26%
3.78
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.56
1.38
Viking xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.38 for Viking, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aalesund's recent record stands at 15W 12D 31L from 58 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 20L across 58 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 10W 8D 11L from 29 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 11W 5D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.79 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 69%.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Viking in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 15W 12D 31L in their last 58 games (0.98 PPG), while Viking have gone 26W 12D 20L in their last 58 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Viking away?
Aalesund's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.31 PPG; Viking away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 0-4 on 26 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Aalesund
2
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Viking?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Viking have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Aalesund 1-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 52%, Viking 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Aalesund) and 66% (Viking). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aalesund have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Aalesund's games and 69% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Aalesund's matches and 66% of Viking's.
Do Aalesund and Viking tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Viking in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Aalesund 0-4 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.18 xG and Viking 1.38 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Aalesund fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Viking outscored their 1.38 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.71 / defence 1.18 against Viking attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 32% | Draw 26% | Viking 41%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 62%, Viking 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.