Lillestrom 4-4 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees ODD Ballklubb travel to Åråsen Stadion to take on Lillestrom. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Lillestrom have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lillestrom at Åråsen Stadion this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Lillestrom) versus 0.90 (ODD Ballklubb). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Lillestrom: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for ODD Ballklubb, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Lillestrom winning.
The historical record gives Lillestrom a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lillestrom trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 57% versus ODD Ballklubb 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 60% | ODD Ballklubb 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 2.16 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.068 / defence 0.870 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.954 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Data: 58 Lillestrom games / 58 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 61% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 19%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | ODD Ballklubb 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Lillestrom (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 50% | ODD Ballklubb 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 61% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG Lillestrom 2.16 / ODD Ballklubb 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.068 / def 0.870 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.954 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.13
ODD Ballklubb xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Lillestrom 4 - 4 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 61% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (5 meetings): Lillestrom 4W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 1.07x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
61%
1.64
20%
4.97
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.28
1.13
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
12%
8.65
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
2%
45.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.13 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lillestrom come into this having played 58 games, going 29W 8D 21L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.36 PPG from 58 outings (22W 13D 23L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lillestrom on 1.64 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lillestrom's home form reads 18W 2D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.10 points per game from 29 outings (8W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lillestrom are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.33 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 29W 8D 21L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 22W 13D 23L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.93 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Lillestrom won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
1
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Lillestrom 3-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 52%, ODD Ballklubb 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lillestrom) and 55% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 31%; ODD Ballklubb in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 52% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Lillestrom's matches and 55% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 4-4 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 2.16 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.13 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ODD Ballklubb outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.07 / defence 0.87 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 61% | Draw 20% | ODD Ballklubb 19%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 60%, ODD Ballklubb 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.64 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.