Ham-Kam 0-2 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ham-Kam face Valerenga.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ham-Kam welcome Valerenga to Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Ham-Kam have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Valerenga stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Valerenga's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ham-Kam at 1.40 PPG versus Valerenga's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Ham-Kam have won 0, Valerenga 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 May 2023, ended Ham-Kam 0–3 Valerenga — a Valerenga win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Valerenga trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 57% versus Valerenga 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 59% | Valerenga 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Valerenga 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.986 / defence 1.075 | Valerenga attack 0.978 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 58 games and Valerenga's last 58.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 33%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.34 | Draw 4.19 | Valerenga 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.64 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Valerenga's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 40% (last 10 home games) | Valerenga 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 29 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Ham-Kam 1.64 / Valerenga 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.986 / def 1.075 | Valerenga attack 0.978 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Valerenga xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Valerenga FAQs
What time does Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Ham-Kam 0 - 2 Valerenga.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga part of?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 29) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 43% chance of winning, Valerenga a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ham-Kam and Valerenga will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ham-Kam vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.99x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ham-Kam's last 58 games and Valerenga's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.19
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.07
1.43
Valerenga xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
6%
15.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ham-Kam vs Valerenga Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.43 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ham-Kam come into this having played 58 games, going 16W 16D 26L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Valerenga sit at 1.19 PPG from 58 outings (19W 12D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.10 PPG, Valerenga on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ham-Kam's home form reads 10W 9D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Valerenga have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 7D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.52 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 60%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
Ham-Kam (Home) vs Valerenga (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Ham-Kam vs Valerenga Form FAQs
What form are Ham-Kam and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 16W 16D 26L in their last 58 games (1.10 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 19W 12D 27L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Valerenga away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.34 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 31 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Ham-Kam have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 May 2023, when Valerenga won Valerenga 3-0 Ham-Kam.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Ham-Kam vs Valerenga H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Ham-Kam have won 3, Valerenga have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Valerenga last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 July 2026: Valerenga 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 48%, Valerenga 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ham-Kam) and 59% (Valerenga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Valerenga Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ham-Kam and Valerenga matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Ham-Kam's games and 69% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ham-Kam and Valerenga matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Ham-Kam's matches and 59% of Valerenga's.
Do Ham-Kam and Valerenga matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 69% of Valerenga's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Ham-Kam 0-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Valerenga 1.43 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.99 / defence 1.07 against Valerenga attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 24% | Valerenga 33%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Valerenga win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 59%, Valerenga 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valerenga's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.10 PPG, Valerenga 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.