Stabaek 2-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stabaek face Sandefjord.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Sandefjord travel to Nadderud Stadion to take on Stabaek in Eliteserien (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Stabaek stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Stabaek's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Sandefjord — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Sandefjord have gone 2W 0D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Stabaek) versus 1.10 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Stabaek, 1 for Sandefjord and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 Jul 2023, ended Stabaek 0–0 Sandefjord — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Stabaek trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Sandefjord trading profile (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 46% versus Sandefjord 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 50% | Sandefjord 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.57 xG and Sandefjord 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.702 / defence 1.072 | Sandefjord attack 1.242 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.357. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.57. Sandefjord's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stabaek's projected output up. Sandefjord have an above-average attack rating of 1.242, which lifts their away xG to 1.81. Data: built from Stabaek's last 28 games and Sandefjord's last 58.

Result probabilities: Stabaek 34% | Draw 23% | Sandefjord 44%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.96 | Draw 4.43 | Sandefjord 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Sandefjord's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stabaek 30% (last 10 home games) | Sandefjord 70% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights