Haugesund 3-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Stabaek at Haugesund Sparebank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haugesund — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Haugesund at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stabaek away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haugesund at 1.10 PPG versus Stabaek's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haugesund register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stabaek in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Haugesund, 3 for Stabaek and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Stabaek winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 52% versus Stabaek 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 52% | Stabaek 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.65 xG and Stabaek 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.935 / defence 1.008 | Stabaek attack 0.676 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.755 / away 1.451. Data: 59 Haugesund games / 29 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 53% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 23%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Stabaek 4.35. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 60% | Stabaek 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 53% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Haugesund 1.65 / Stabaek 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.935 / def 1.008 | Stabaek attack 0.676 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.755 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Stabaek xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Stabaek kick off?
Haugesund vs Stabaek kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Haugesund 3 - 0 Stabaek.
Where is Haugesund vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Stabaek part of?
Haugesund vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 53% chance of winning, Stabaek a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Haugesund and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stabaek?
Record (5 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 3W.
What form are Haugesund and Stabaek in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.94) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.08
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.64
0.99
Stabaek xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
4%
23.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Haugesund and 0.99 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund's recent record stands at 8W 6D 15L from 29 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 14L across 29 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.03 PPG, Stabaek on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 6W 2D 6L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stabaek's away record stands at 1W 5D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stabaek's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.03 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Stabaek
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 8W 6D 15L in their last 29 games (1.03 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 7W 8D 14L in their last 29 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Stabaek away?
Haugesund's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.43 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Stabaek won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Haugesund
1
Draws
3
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Stabaek have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when Haugesund 3-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 64%, Stabaek 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Haugesund and 64% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Haugesund's games and 64% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Haugesund's matches and 64% of Stabaek's.
Do Haugesund and Stabaek tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Haugesund run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Stabaek 3-0 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.65 xG and Stabaek 0.99 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stabaek landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Stabaek attack 0.68 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 53% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 23%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 52%, Stabaek 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Stabaek's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.03 PPG, Stabaek 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.