Sandefjord 3-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 28 as Sandefjord welcome Rosenborg to Jotun Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandefjord — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jotun Arena, Sandefjord have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Rosenborg's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sandefjord register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rosenborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Rosenborg, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Sandefjord.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rosenborg have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 61% and Rosenborg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 74% | Rosenborg 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.91 xG and Rosenborg 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.894 / defence 0.941 | Rosenborg attack 0.958 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.393. Data: 57 Sandefjord games / 57 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 53% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 25%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Rosenborg 4.00. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Rosenborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 53% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Sandefjord 1.91 / Rosenborg 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.894 / def 0.941 | Rosenborg attack 0.958 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Rosenborg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Sandefjord 3 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg part of?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 53% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sandefjord and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Record (4 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 3W.
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.89x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.48
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.16
1.26
Rosenborg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
15%
6.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
4%
26.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.26 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 12W 13D 32L from 57 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 17L across 57 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 6W 11D 11L from 28 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 7W 9D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.88 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 12W 13D 32L in their last 57 games (0.86 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 26W 14D 17L in their last 57 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.04 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Rosenborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
3
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Rosenborg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 71%, Rosenborg at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Sandefjord and 71% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sandefjord's games and 71% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sandefjord's matches and 71% of Rosenborg's.
Do Sandefjord and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Rosenborg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Rosenborg 3-2 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.91 xG and Rosenborg 1.26 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Rosenborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.19, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 53% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 25%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 74%, Rosenborg 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Sandefjord winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.