Valerenga 0-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Valerenga face Stabaek.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Stabaek travel to Intility Arena to take on Valerenga in Eliteserien (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Valerenga stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Valerenga at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stabaek — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Valerenga 0.90 PPG, Stabaek 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Valerenga's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Valerenga, 1 for Stabaek and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2023, ended Valerenga 1–2 Stabaek — a Stabaek win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 70% versus Stabaek 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 67% | Stabaek 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.58 xG and Stabaek 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.833 / defence 1.347 | Stabaek attack 0.791 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.393. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.48. Valerenga's defence rating of 1.347 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stabaek's projected output up. Data: built from Valerenga's last 57 games and Stabaek's last 27.
Result probabilities: Valerenga 40% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 36%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.49 | Draw 4.17 | Stabaek 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.48) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Valerenga's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valerenga 80% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 28 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 40% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Valerenga 1.58 / Stabaek 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.833 / def 1.347 | Stabaek attack 0.791 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Stabaek xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valerenga vs Stabaek FAQs
What time does Valerenga vs Stabaek kick off?
Valerenga vs Stabaek kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Valerenga 0 - 0 Stabaek.
Where is Valerenga vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Stabaek part of?
Valerenga vs Stabaek is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 28) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 40% chance of winning, Stabaek a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Valerenga and Stabaek will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Valerenga vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Valerenga's attack at 0.83x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Valerenga's last 57 games and Stabaek's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
40%
2.49
24%
4.17
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.07
1.48
Stabaek xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valerenga vs Stabaek Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.48 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Valerenga have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 6W 6D 15L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Stabaek's form line: 6W 7D 14L from 27 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 0.89 PPG, Stabaek on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 0.62 PPG from their last 13 home games (2W 2D 9L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 1W 4D 8L from their last 13 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.04 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
Valerenga (Home) vs Stabaek (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valerenga
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Valerenga vs Stabaek Form FAQs
What form are Valerenga and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 6W 6D 15L in their last 27 games (0.89 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 6W 7D 14L in their last 27 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Stabaek away?
Valerenga's home record (0.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 0.62 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valerenga's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Valerenga
3
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Valerenga vs Stabaek H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Stabaek?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Valerenga have won 2, Stabaek have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Stabaek last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 November 2023: Valerenga 0-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Stabaek?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 69%, Stabaek at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Valerenga and 69% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valerenga vs Stabaek Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valerenga and Stabaek matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Valerenga's games and 69% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Valerenga and Stabaek matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Valerenga's matches and 69% of Stabaek's.
Do Valerenga and Stabaek matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Valerenga's recent matches and 85% of Stabaek's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valerenga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga and Stabaek finished level at 0-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.58 xG and Stabaek 1.48 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valerenga fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.83 / defence 1.35 against Stabaek attack 0.79 / defence 1.06, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 40% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 36%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 67%, Stabaek 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Stabaek's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 0.89 PPG, Stabaek 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.