Bodo/Glimt 7-2 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Stromsgodset at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 16 June 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bodo/Glimt stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stromsgodset away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 70% and Stromsgodset 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Stromsgodset 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.45 xG and Stromsgodset 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.373 / defence 0.726 | Stromsgodset attack 0.792 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.231. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 2.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Bodo/Glimt games / 35 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 17% | Stromsgodset 8%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | Stromsgodset 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (75%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Stromsgodset 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Jun 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 17% | Stromsgodset 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 47% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.45 / Stromsgodset 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.373 / def 0.726 | Stromsgodset attack 0.792 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Stromsgodset xG
47%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 16 June 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Bodo/Glimt 7 - 2 Stromsgodset.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 75% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.37) and Stromsgodset's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
75%
1.34
17%
5.75
8%
12.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.16
0.71
Stromsgodset xG
1.34
75%
Home win
5.75
17%
Draw
12.84
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
9%
11.63
Win to Nil
37%
2.71
1%
149.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.71 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Bodo/Glimt have picked up 2.70 PPG on a 26W 3D 1L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bodo/Glimt have posted 3.00 PPG from 15 outings (15W 0D 0L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.37 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Stromsgodset in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 games (2.70 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Stromsgodset away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 87% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 60%, Stromsgodset 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Bodo/Glimt and 73% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Stromsgodset in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 67% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 73% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 7-2 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Stromsgodset 7-2 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.45 xG and Stromsgodset 0.71 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 7-2 for 9 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 4.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stromsgodset outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.37 / defence 0.73 against Stromsgodset attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 17% | Stromsgodset 8%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 78% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 90%, Stromsgodset 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 3.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.