Mjondalen 1-1 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Consto Arena plays host to Mjondalen versus Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 20 June 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjondalen's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 5W 0D 5L at Consto Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stromsgodset have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stromsgodset's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Mjondalen's favour (1.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Mjondalen 1W, Stromsgodset 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2020, ended 3–0 with Mjondalen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mjondalen — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 40% versus Stromsgodset 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 43% | Stromsgodset 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.88 xG and Stromsgodset 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.760 / defence 0.768 | Stromsgodset attack 0.935 / defence 1.461. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.225. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.461 — this is suppressing Mjondalen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Mjondalen's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Mjondalen games / 36 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 59% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 15%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Stromsgodset 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Mjondalen (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 30% | Stromsgodset 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 59% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Mjondalen 1.88 / Stromsgodset 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.760 / def 0.768 | Stromsgodset attack 0.935 / def 1.461 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Stromsgodset xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Mjondalen 1 - 1 Stromsgodset.
Where is Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset part of?
Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 59% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mjondalen and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): Mjondalen 1W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Mjondalen and Stromsgodset in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.76x the league average against Stromsgodset's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stromsgodset's attack (0.94x) against Mjondalen's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.92
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.76
0.88
Stromsgodset xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
15%
6.54
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
42.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Mjondalen and 0.88 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 9W 2D 19L from 30 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Stromsgodset, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 13L across 30 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Mjondalen against 1.03 for Stromsgodset. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 6W 0D 9L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stromsgodset's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Mjondalen are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.37 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 9W 2D 19L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Stromsgodset away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.20 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjondalen won 3-0 on 7 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjondalen have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mjondalen
1
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stromsgodset?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 2, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2021, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Stromsgodset?
Mjondalen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 33%, Stromsgodset 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Mjondalen and 73% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 33% of games; Stromsgodset in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 67% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Mjondalen's matches and 73% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Mjondalen and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjondalen and Stromsgodset share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Mjondalen and Stromsgodset drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.88 xG and Stromsgodset 0.88 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mjondalen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.76 / defence 0.77 against Stromsgodset attack 0.94 / defence 1.46, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 59% | Draw 25% | Stromsgodset 15%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 43%, Stromsgodset 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjondalen 0.97 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.