Haugesund vs Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Viking travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 July 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Haugesund Stadion, Haugesund have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haugesund at 1.50 PPG versus Viking's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 1, Viking 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2021, ended 4–2 with Haugesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Viking in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 50% versus Viking 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 55% | Viking 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.43 xG and Viking 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.039 / defence 0.823 | Viking attack 1.121 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.141. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Haugesund games / 40 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 66% | Draw 20% | Viking 13%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Viking 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 40% | Viking 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 66% | Draw 20% | Viking 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 61% | xG Haugesund 2.43 / Viking 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.039 / def 0.823 | Viking attack 1.121 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Viking xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Viking kick off?
Haugesund vs Viking kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 3 July 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
Where is Haugesund vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Viking part of?
Haugesund vs Viking is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 66% chance of winning, Viking a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Haugesund and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 0 | Viking 0W.
What form are Haugesund and Viking in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Viking (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 1.04x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 2.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.1%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
66%
1.51
20%
4.92
13%
7.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.49
1.05
Viking xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
7.49
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
9%
11.37
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
1%
85.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.05 for Viking, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 9D 15L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.58 PPG from 38 outings (17W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.34 PPG, Viking on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.87 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Viking in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while Viking have gone 17W 9D 12L in their last 38 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Viking away?
Haugesund's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.63 PPG; Viking away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Viking in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Viking specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Viking have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Haugesund 1-4 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 47%, Viking 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Haugesund and 79% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Haugesund have failed to score in 26% of games; Viking in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Haugesund's recent matches and 58% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Haugesund's matches and 79% of Viking's.
Do Haugesund and Viking tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Viking in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund and Viking finished level at 0-0 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.43 xG and Viking 1.05 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Viking landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.04 / defence 0.82 against Viking attack 1.12 / defence 1.43, drawn from 38/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 66% | Draw 20% | Viking 13%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 55%, Viking 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.34 PPG, Viking 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.