Viking vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Viking (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at SR-Bank Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Viking are significantly better at SR-Bank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 63% and Bodo/Glimt 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 78% | Bodo/Glimt 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.56 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.278 / defence 1.132 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.964 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.152. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.745 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Viking games / 43 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 43% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 29%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Bodo/Glimt 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 60% | Bodo/Glimt 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 43% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Viking 1.56 / Bodo/Glimt 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.278 / def 1.132 | Bodo/Glimt attack 0.964 / def 0.745 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Viking (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Bodo/Glimt xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
Where is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Viking vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 43% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Viking and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (0.96x) against Viking's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 41/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.55
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Viking xG
Total xG
2.82
1.26
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
6%
16.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Viking and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Viking and 1.26 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Viking have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 17W 10D 14L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt's form line: 31W 6D 4L from 41 games, 2.41 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bodo/Glimt are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Viking.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 12W 4D 3L from 19 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.93 scored and 1.02 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 17W 10D 14L in their last 41 games (1.49 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 31W 6D 4L in their last 41 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.84 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Viking or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 5-0 on 11 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Viking
1
Draws
5
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 4, Bodo/Glimt have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Viking 5-0 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Viking, 68% for Bodo/Glimt — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Viking and 74% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Viking's games and 68% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Viking's matches and 74% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Viking and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Viking and Bodo/Glimt drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.56 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.26 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.28 / defence 1.13 against Bodo/Glimt attack 0.96 / defence 0.74, drawn from 41/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 43% | Draw 28% | Bodo/Glimt 29%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 78%, Bodo/Glimt 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.