Jong AZ 1-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Dordrecht at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 2W 0D 8L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.20 PPG versus Dordrecht's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 4, Dordrecht 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 67% versus Dordrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 70% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.41 xG and Dordrecht 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.845 / defence 1.372 | Dordrecht attack 0.885 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.769 / away 1.499. Data: 63 Jong AZ games / 63 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 29% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 46%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Dordrecht 2.17. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong AZ 40% | Dordrecht 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 9 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 29% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong AZ 1.41 / Dordrecht 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.845 / def 1.372 | Dordrecht attack 0.885 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.769 / away 1.499 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Dordrecht xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 9 February 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Jong AZ 1 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 29% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong AZ and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Record (9 meetings): Jong AZ 4W | Draws 3 | Dordrecht 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.84x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
29%
3.50
26%
3.92
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.23
1.82
Dordrecht xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
5%
21.64
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.82 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 12D 29L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.62 PPG from 63 outings (29W 15D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.24 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 8W 6D 17L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.32 points per game from 31 outings (12W 5D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.65 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 22W 12D 29L in their last 63 games (1.24 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 29W 15D 19L in their last 63 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 0.97 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Jong AZ or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, Dordrecht have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 64%, Dordrecht 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Jong AZ and 55% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 26% of games; Dordrecht in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 45% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Jong AZ's matches and 55% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong AZ and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dordrecht edge out Jong AZ 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Jong AZ 1-2 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.41 xG and Dordrecht 1.82 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.84 / defence 1.37 against Dordrecht attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 29% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 46%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 70%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.24 PPG, Dordrecht 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.