Padova 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Padova at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Padova vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bari make the trip to Stadio Euganeo to face Padova in Serie B (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Padova (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Padova at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bari have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bari's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Padova. A 0.50 PPG lead over Bari (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Bari edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Padova 1–2 Bari — a Bari win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Padova — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Bari — key trading statistics (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 52% versus Bari 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 40% | Bari 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.29 xG and Bari 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.864 / defence 1.142 | Bari attack 0.805 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.070. Data: built from Padova's last 25 games and Bari's last 63.
Result probabilities: Padova 43% | Draw 29% | Bari 28%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.33 | Draw 3.44 | Bari 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Padova are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Padova 70% (last 10 home games) | Bari 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 43% | Draw 29% | Bari 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Padova 1.29 / Bari 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.864 / def 1.142 | Bari attack 0.805 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Padova (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Padova xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bari xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Padova vs Bari FAQs
What time does Padova vs Bari kick off?
Padova vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Bari?
Padova 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Padova vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Bari part of?
Padova vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 43% chance of winning, Bari a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Padova and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Padova vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Padova's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.81x) against Padova's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Padova's last 25 games and Bari's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.44
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Padova xG
Total xG
2.27
0.98
Bari xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Padova vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Padova and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Padova and 0.98 for Bari, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Padova come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 8D 10L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Bari sit at 0.84 PPG from 25 outings (4W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Padova against 0.84 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Padova's home form reads 3W 5D 4L across their last 12 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 0.58 points per game from their last 12 away games (1W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Padova are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 0.80 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Bari
Blended
Padova (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Padova
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Padova vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Padova and Bari in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Bari have gone 4W 9D 12L in their last 25 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Bari away?
Padova's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.17 PPG; Bari away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Padova
1
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Padova vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Bari?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Padova have won 0, Bari have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Padova and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Padova 1-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bari see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 67%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Padova) and 58% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Bari in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Padova vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Padova and Bari matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Padova's games and 50% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Padova and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Padova's recent games and 58% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Padova's recent matches and 58% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Padova and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova and Bari finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.29 xG and Bari 0.98 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Bari attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 43% | Draw 29% | Bari 28%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 40%, Bari 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.16 PPG, Bari 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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