🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Reggiana at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Avellino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Avellino in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

Form

Reggiana (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Reggiana's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Reggiana are significantly better at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore than their overall form suggests.

Avellino's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Avellino have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Reggiana, 0.80 for Avellino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Reggiana, 1 for Avellino and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 3–4 with Avellino winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Avellino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reggiana 64% and Avellino 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 52% | Avellino 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.31 xG and Avellino 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.873 / defence 1.061 | Avellino attack 0.754 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.108. Data: 63 Reggiana games / 25 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Reggiana 46% | Draw 29% | Avellino 25%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Avellino 4.00. Reggiana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Reggiana as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 60% | Avellino 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights