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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 42%, yet in-form Monza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Carrarese vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Monza make the trip to Stadio dei Marmi to face Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 18:30 UTC.

Form

Carrarese (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio dei Marmi — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.

Monza's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Monza's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Monza are 0.60 PPG clear of Carrarese in recent Serie B fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Carrarese lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–4 with Monza winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 48% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 48% | Monza 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.09 xG and Monza 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.970 / defence 0.756 | Monza attack 0.937 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.099. Carrarese's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Carrarese games / 25 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 42% | Draw 33% | Monza 25%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Monza 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Carrarese as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monza (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 20% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.

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