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Poisson model rates Modena at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Modena host Padova at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Modena — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Modena's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Braglia.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Padova stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Padova's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 1.40 PPG versus Padova's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Modena, 1 for Padova and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Padova winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Modena trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

Padova trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 42% versus Padova 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 42% | Padova 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.40 xG and Padova 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.962 / defence 0.926 | Padova attack 0.823 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.111. Data: 64 Modena games / 26 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Modena 50% | Draw 28% | Padova 22%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Padova 4.55. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Padova 40% BTTS from recent games.

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