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Poisson model rates Modena at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Juve Stabia (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Juve Stabia's home record at Stadio Romeo Menti: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti.

Modena have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Juve Stabia's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Juve Stabia 1W, Modena 2W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Modena winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 51% versus Modena 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 49% | Modena 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 0.93 xG and Modena 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.047 / defence 0.971 | Modena attack 0.952 / defence 0.699. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.101. Modena's defence strength of 0.699 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Juve Stabia games / 63 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 32% | Draw 32% | Modena 36%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Modena 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juve Stabia (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 40% | Modena 20% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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