Mantova 2-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 38%, yet in-form Sampdoria provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mantova vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mantova host Sampdoria at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mantova — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova at Stadio Danilo Martelli this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sampdoria are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mantova, 1 for Sampdoria and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Mantova winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 56% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 51% | Sampdoria 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.33 xG and Sampdoria 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.034 / defence 1.365 | Sampdoria attack 0.859 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.070. Data: 63 Mantova games / 63 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 38% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 35%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Sampdoria 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sampdoria (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 70% | Sampdoria 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 38% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Mantova 1.33 / Sampdoria 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.034 / def 1.365 | Sampdoria attack 0.859 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Mantova (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sampdoria xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Sampdoria kick off?
Mantova vs Sampdoria kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Mantova 2 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Mantova vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Sampdoria part of?
Mantova vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 38% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mantova and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sampdoria?
Record (3 meetings): Mantova 1W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Mantova and Sampdoria in?
Mantova (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mantova's attack at 1.03x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.66
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.59
1.25
Sampdoria xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Mantova and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Mantova and 1.25 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova's recent record stands at 16W 19D 28L from 63 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 16W 24D 23L across 63 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.06 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 11W 9D 10L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 3W 13D 14L across 30 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sampdoria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.03 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 16W 19D 28L in their last 63 games (1.06 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 16W 24D 23L in their last 63 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Sampdoria away?
Mantova's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.40 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Sampdoria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mantova go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mantova's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mantova
1
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Mantova 2-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Sampdoria?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 53%, Sampdoria 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mantova) and 50% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Mantova have failed to score in 27% of games; Sampdoria in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Mantova's games and 70% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mantova's recent games and 50% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Sampdoria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Sampdoria 2-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.33 xG and Sampdoria 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.03 / defence 1.36 against Sampdoria attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 38% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 35%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 51%, Sampdoria 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.06 PPG, Sampdoria 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.