Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sudtirol have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Palermo, 1.90 for Sudtirol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Palermo 4W, Sudtirol 2W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 51% versus Sudtirol 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 46% | Sudtirol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.33 xG and Sudtirol 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.303 / defence 0.789 | Sudtirol attack 0.877 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.070. Palermo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Palermo's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Palermo games / 63 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 50% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 20%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Sudtirol 5.00. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 20% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 50% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Palermo 1.33 / Sudtirol 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.303 / def 0.789 | Sudtirol attack 0.877 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Palermo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sudtirol xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Sudtirol kick off?
Palermo vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Palermo 3 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Palermo vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Sudtirol part of?
Palermo vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 50% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Palermo and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sudtirol?
Record (7 meetings): Palermo 4W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 2W.
What form are Palermo and Sudtirol in?
Palermo (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.30x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.88x) against Palermo's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
50%
1.98
29%
3.42
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.07
0.74
Sudtirol xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
5%
18.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Palermo and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Palermo and 0.74 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palermo come into this having played 63 games, going 27W 19D 17L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.25 PPG from 63 outings (19W 22D 22L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Palermo against 1.25 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Palermo's home form reads 17W 8D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.12 points per game from 32 outings (8W 12D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.21 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 27W 19D 17L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 19W 22D 22L in their last 63 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Sudtirol away?
Palermo's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.84 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Palermo or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sudtirol?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Sudtirol?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 38%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Palermo) and 44% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Sudtirol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Palermo's recent games and 44% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palermo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Sudtirol 3-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.33 xG and Sudtirol 0.74 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.30 / defence 0.79 against Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 50% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 20%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 46%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sudtirol's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.59 PPG, Sudtirol 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.