Sampdoria 0-2 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sampdoria at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Bari meet at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Bari (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bari have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Sampdoria. A 1.00 PPG lead over Bari (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bari in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sampdoria, 0 for Bari and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sampdoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 53% versus Bari 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sampdoria 39% | Bari 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.53 xG and Bari 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.050 / defence 1.000 | Bari attack 0.791 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.103. Data: 64 Sampdoria games / 64 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 52% | Draw 27% | Bari 21%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Bari 4.76. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sampdoria 60% | Bari 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 52% | Draw 27% | Bari 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Sampdoria 1.53 / Bari 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.050 / def 1.000 | Bari attack 0.791 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Bari xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Bari kick off?
Sampdoria vs Bari kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Bari?
Sampdoria 0 - 2 Bari.
Where is Sampdoria vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Bari part of?
Sampdoria vs Bari is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 52% chance of winning, Bari a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sampdoria and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Bari?
Record (5 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 4 | Bari 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Bari in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Bari (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (1.05) and Bari's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.79x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.74
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.40
0.87
Bari xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
5%
22.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.87 for Bari, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 24D 24L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 14W 28D 22L from 64 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.09 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (13W 11D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Sampdoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bari have gone 4W 14D 14L from 32 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 0.97 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Bari in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 16W 24D 24L in their last 64 games (1.12 PPG), while Bari have gone 14W 28D 22L in their last 64 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Bari away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.56 PPG; Bari away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
4
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Sampdoria 0-2 Bari.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 38%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Sampdoria and 41% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 31% of games; Bari in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 50% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sampdoria's recent games and 41% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Bari tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bari in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Sampdoria 0-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.53 xG and Bari 0.87 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bari outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Bari attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 52% | Draw 27% | Bari 21%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 39%, Bari 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.12 PPG, Bari 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.