Cittadella 1-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Brescia at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cittadella vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato plays host to Cittadella versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cittadella have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cittadella have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Brescia (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Brescia are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cittadella, 0 for Brescia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cittadella — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Brescia — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 44% versus Brescia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 33% | Brescia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 0.69 xG and Brescia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.752 / defence 1.135 | Brescia attack 0.851 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.077. Cittadella's attack strength of 0.752 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Cittadella games / 36 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 22% | Draw 38% | Brescia 41%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 4.55 | Draw 2.63 | Brescia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cittadella's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.73 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 40% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 22% | Draw 38% | Brescia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Cittadella 0.69 / Brescia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.752 / def 1.135 | Brescia attack 0.851 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Brescia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Brescia xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Brescia kick off?
Cittadella vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Brescia?
Cittadella 1 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Cittadella vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Brescia part of?
Cittadella vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 22% chance of winning, Brescia a 41% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Cittadella and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 1 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Cittadella and Brescia in?
Cittadella (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Brescia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (0.75) and Brescia's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.85x) against Cittadella's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
22%
4.63
38%
2.65
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Cittadella xG
Total xG
1.73
1.04
Brescia xG
4.63
22%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 18.4 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.04 for Brescia, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Cittadella have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 12W 13D 11L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 16W 15D 5L from 36 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Cittadella against 1.75 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cittadella have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 9W 7D 2L from 18 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cittadella are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.44 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Brescia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Brescia in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 12W 13D 11L in their last 36 games (1.36 PPG), while Brescia have gone 16W 15D 5L in their last 36 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.28 PPG; Brescia away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Brescia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cittadella
3
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Brescia?
From 8 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 3, Brescia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Cittadella 0-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Brescia?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 44%, Brescia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cittadella) and 28% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Brescia in 44%; Cittadella have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cittadella's recent matches and 50% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cittadella's recent games and 28% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Brescia tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Brescia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cittadella defy the odds to beat Brescia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Brescia 1-0 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 0.69 xG and Brescia 1.04 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brescia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.75 / defence 1.14 against Brescia attack 0.85 / defence 0.87, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 22% | Draw 38% | Brescia 41%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Cittadella win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 33%, Brescia 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Brescia's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.36 PPG, Brescia 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.