Pordenone 3-3 Crotone – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pordenone at 33%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pordenone vs Crotone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pordenone host Crotone at Stadio Guido Teghil in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pordenone stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pordenone's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Guido Teghil this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Crotone have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Crotone have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Crotone are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pordenone register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Crotone in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pordenone have won 0, Crotone 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with Crotone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pordenone in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Crotone in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 50% versus Crotone 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pordenone 39% | Crotone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 1.16 xG and Crotone 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.776 / defence 1.461 | Crotone attack 0.736 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.077. Pordenone's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crotone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Pordenone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Pordenone games / 36 Crotone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 33% | Draw 33% | Crotone 33%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Crotone 3.03. The draw (33%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 33% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pordenone 60% | Crotone 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Crotone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 33% | Draw 33% | Crotone 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Pordenone 1.16 / Crotone 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.776 / def 1.461 | Crotone attack 0.736 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Draw (33%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Crotone xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Crotone kick off?
Pordenone vs Crotone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Crotone?
Pordenone 3 - 3 Crotone.
Where is Pordenone vs Crotone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Crotone part of?
Pordenone vs Crotone is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Crotone?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 33% chance of winning, Crotone a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Crotone?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pordenone and Crotone will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Crotone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Crotone?
Record (1 meetings): Pordenone 0W | Draws 0 | Crotone 1W.
What form are Pordenone and Crotone in?
Pordenone (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Crotone (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pordenone's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Crotone's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Crotone's attack versus Pordenone's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pordenone Win
33%
2.99
33%
3.01
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.32
1.16
Crotone xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Crotone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Crotone expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.16 for Crotone, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Crotone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 33%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pordenone come into this having played 36 games, going 3W 8D 25L for 0.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Crotone sit at 0.69 PPG from 36 outings (4W 13D 19L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pordenone on 0.47 PPG, Crotone on 0.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pordenone's home form reads 2W 6D 10L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Crotone have taken 0.28 points per game from 18 outings (0W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 0.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crotone's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Pordenone are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Crotone are on 1.06 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crotone in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Current Season
Crotone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Crotone in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 3W 8D 25L in their last 36 games (0.47 PPG), while Crotone have gone 4W 13D 19L in their last 36 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Crotone away?
Pordenone's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.67 PPG; Crotone away: 0.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
1
Draws
1
Crotone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Crotone?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Crotone have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Crotone last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Pordenone 3-3 Crotone.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Crotone?
Crotone have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Crotone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 56%, Crotone 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pordenone) and 44% (Crotone).
On the defensive side: Pordenone have failed to score in 33% of games; Crotone in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Crotone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Crotone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Pordenone's games and 61% of Crotone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pordenone vs Crotone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pordenone's recent games and 44% of Crotone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Crotone tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Crotone in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pordenone and Crotone share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 37, as Pordenone and Crotone drew 3-3 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 1.16 xG and Crotone 1.16 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Pordenone beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crotone outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.78 / defence 1.46 against Crotone attack 0.74 / defence 1.41, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 33% | Draw 33% | Crotone 33%, with Pordenone to win its most likely call at 33%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 39%, Crotone 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Crotone's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pordenone 0.47 PPG, Crotone 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pordenone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crotone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.