Cosenza 1-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cittadella at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Cittadella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 38 as Cosenza welcome Cittadella to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cittadella stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cittadella have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Cosenza) versus 1.00 (Cittadella). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cosenza, 0 for Cittadella and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cittadella trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 57% versus Cittadella 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 43% | Cittadella 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.88 xG and Cittadella 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.908 / defence 1.376 | Cittadella attack 0.770 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.080. Data: 37 Cosenza games / 37 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 26% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 40%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Cittadella 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cittadella at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 60% | Cittadella 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 26% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Cosenza 0.88 / Cittadella 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.908 / def 1.376 | Cittadella attack 0.770 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Cittadella xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Cittadella kick off?
Cosenza vs Cittadella kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Cosenza vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Cittadella part of?
Cosenza vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 26% chance of winning, Cittadella a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cosenza and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cittadella?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 1 | Cittadella 0W.
What form are Cosenza and Cittadella in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Cittadella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.91x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
26%
3.78
33%
3.01
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.02
1.15
Cittadella xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
17%
5.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 15.2 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.15 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza's recent record stands at 7W 11D 19L from 37 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Cittadella, meanwhile, have gone 13W 13D 11L across 37 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cittadella by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 7W 3D 8L from 18 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cittadella's away record stands at 6W 8D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.03 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 7W 11D 19L in their last 37 games (0.86 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 13W 13D 11L in their last 37 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Cittadella away?
Cittadella's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.33 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Cittadella in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Cittadella runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cosenza's record when hosting Cittadella specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cosenza
5
Draws
2
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cittadella?
From 8 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Cittadella have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Cosenza 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 50%, Cittadella 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Cosenza and 22% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Cittadella in 39%; Cosenza have failed to score in 33% of games; Cittadella in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cosenza's recent matches and 44% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cosenza's recent games and 22% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Cittadella tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Cittadella 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Cittadella 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.88 xG and Cittadella 1.15 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cittadella landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.91 / defence 1.38 against Cittadella attack 0.77 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 26% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 40%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 43%, Cittadella 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Cittadella's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Cosenza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.