Parma 2-2 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Alessandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Alessandria travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini to take on Parma. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Alessandria have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Alessandria away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Parma 1.30 PPG, Alessandria 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Parma have won 1, Alessandria 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Parma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Parma in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Alessandria in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 56% versus Alessandria 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 42% | Alessandria 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.64 xG and Alessandria 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.049 / defence 1.213 | Alessandria attack 0.768 / defence 1.468. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.077. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.468 — this is suppressing Parma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Parma games / 36 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 50% | Draw 29% | Alessandria 21%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Alessandria 4.76. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Parma 60% | Alessandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 50% | Draw 29% | Alessandria 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Parma 1.64 / Alessandria 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.049 / def 1.213 | Alessandria attack 0.768 / def 1.468 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Parma (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Alessandria xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Alessandria kick off?
Parma vs Alessandria kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Alessandria?
Parma 2 - 2 Alessandria.
Where is Parma vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Alessandria part of?
Parma vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 50% chance of winning, Alessandria a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Parma and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Alessandria?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 0 | Alessandria 0W.
What form are Parma and Alessandria in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Alessandria (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.05x the league average against Alessandria's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alessandria's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.44
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Parma xG
Total xG
2.64
1.00
Alessandria xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
4%
24.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Parma and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Parma and 1.00 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Parma come into this having played 36 games, going 10W 15D 11L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Alessandria sit at 0.92 PPG from 36 outings (8W 9D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.25 PPG, Alessandria on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Parma's home form reads 5W 8D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Alessandria have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (3W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Parma are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 0.97 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Alessandria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 10W 15D 11L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 8W 9D 19L in their last 36 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Alessandria away?
Parma's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.28 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Parma or Alessandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Alessandria in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Parma
1
Draws
0
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Alessandria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Parma 2-2 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Alessandria?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 56%, Alessandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Parma) and 61% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 28% of games; Alessandria in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Alessandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Parma's recent matches and 50% of Alessandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Parma's recent games and 61% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Alessandria tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Alessandria share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma and Alessandria finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.64 xG and Alessandria 1.00 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alessandria outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.05 / defence 1.21 against Alessandria attack 0.77 / defence 1.47, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 50% | Draw 29% | Alessandria 21%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 42%, Alessandria 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Alessandria's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.25 PPG, Alessandria 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Parma (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alessandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.