Brescia 3-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brescia's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Reggina have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Brescia, 1.00 for Reggina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Brescia 1W, Reggina 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Reggina 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 30% | Reggina 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.21 xG and Reggina 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.014 / defence 1.065 | Reggina attack 0.605 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.080. Data: 37 Brescia games / 37 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 47% | Draw 33% | Reggina 20%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Reggina 5.00. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 70% | Reggina 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 47% | Draw 33% | Reggina 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Brescia 1.21 / Reggina 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.014 / def 1.065 | Reggina attack 0.605 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Brescia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Reggina xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Reggina kick off?
Brescia vs Reggina kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Reggina?
Brescia 3 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Brescia vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Reggina part of?
Brescia vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 47% chance of winning, Reggina a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Brescia and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Reggina?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Reggina 0W.
What form are Brescia and Reggina in?
Brescia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Reggina (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brescia's attack rating (1.01) and Reggina's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.60x) against Brescia's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
47%
2.12
33%
3.03
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Brescia xG
Total xG
1.91
0.70
Reggina xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
6%
16.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Brescia and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Brescia and 0.70 for Reggina, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 16W 15D 6L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Reggina's form line: 13W 9D 15L from 37 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Brescia against 1.30 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (7W 8D 3L).
On the road, Reggina have gone 4W 7D 7L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brescia are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 0.84 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Reggina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Reggina in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 16W 15D 6L in their last 37 games (1.70 PPG), while Reggina have gone 13W 9D 15L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Reggina away?
Brescia's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.61 PPG; Reggina away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Brescia or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Reggina in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brescia won 3-0 on 6 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Brescia
0
Draws
1
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Brescia have won 3, Reggina have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2023, when Reggina 1-2 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Reggina?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brescia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 61%, Reggina 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Brescia and 17% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Reggina in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Brescia's recent matches and 33% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Brescia's recent games and 17% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Reggina tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Reggina in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brescia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Reggina 3-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.21 xG and Reggina 0.70 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Brescia beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Reggina attack 0.60 / defence 1.11, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 47% | Draw 33% | Reggina 20%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 30%, Reggina 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reggina's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.70 PPG, Reggina 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Reggina (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.