Vicenza Virtus 2-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lecce at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus host Lecce at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vicenza Virtus have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Vicenza Virtus are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lecce's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lecce are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Lecce 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Lecce winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Lecce trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 47% versus Lecce 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 44% | Lecce 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 0.93 xG and Lecce 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.917 / defence 1.219 | Lecce attack 0.915 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.077. Data: 36 Vicenza Virtus games / 36 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 26% | Draw 34% | Lecce 40%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | Lecce 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vicenza Virtus 60% | Lecce 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 26% | Draw 34% | Lecce 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Vicenza Virtus 0.93 / Lecce 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.917 / def 1.219 | Lecce attack 0.915 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Lecce (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Lecce xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce?
Vicenza Virtus 2 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 26% chance of winning, Lecce a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Lecce?
Record (1 meetings): Vicenza Virtus 0W | Draws 0 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Lecce in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Lecce (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (0.92) and Lecce's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
26%
3.87
34%
2.91
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.13
1.20
Lecce xG
3.87
26%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
8%
12.87
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.3 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.20 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 36 games, going 7W 7D 22L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 1.89 PPG from 36 outings (18W 14D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Lecce carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 4W 5D 9L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 1.50 points per game from 18 outings (6W 9D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.58 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Lecce in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Lecce in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 7W 7D 22L in their last 36 games (0.78 PPG), while Lecce have gone 18W 14D 4L in their last 36 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Lecce away?
Lecce's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.94 PPG; Lecce away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Lecce in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
1
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Lecce?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, Lecce have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 2-1 Lecce.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 56%, Lecce 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Vicenza Virtus) and 33% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Lecce in 33%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games; Lecce in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 50% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 33% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Lecce tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lecce in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vicenza Virtus defy the odds to beat Lecce 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vicenza Virtus beat Lecce 2-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 0.93 xG and Lecce 1.20 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vicenza Virtus beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.92 / defence 1.22 against Lecce attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 26% | Draw 34% | Lecce 40%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Vicenza Virtus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 44%, Lecce 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Vicenza Virtus winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Lecce (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.