Brescia 1-1 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Spal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 36 as Brescia welcome Spal to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Monday 25 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brescia — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spal stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Spal's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Brescia have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Brescia, 0 for Spal and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Brescia in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Spal in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Spal 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 31% | Spal 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.53 xG and Spal 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.048 / defence 1.054 | Spal attack 0.770 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.061. Spal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Brescia games / 35 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 51% | Draw 30% | Spal 19%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Spal 5.26. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 60% | Spal 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 51% | Draw 30% | Spal 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Brescia 1.53 / Spal 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.048 / def 1.054 | Spal attack 0.770 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Brescia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Spal xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Spal kick off?
Brescia vs Spal kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Spal?
Brescia 1 - 1 Spal.
Where is Brescia vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Spal part of?
Brescia vs Spal is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 51% chance of winning, Spal a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Brescia and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 1W | Draws 0 | Spal 0W.
What form are Brescia and Spal in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Spal (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.05x the league average against Spal's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
51%
1.96
30%
3.32
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.39
0.86
Spal xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
4%
24.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Brescia and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Brescia and 0.86 for Spal, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Brescia come into this having played 35 games, going 16W 14D 5L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Spal sit at 1.00 PPG from 35 outings (7W 14D 14L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Brescia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Spal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Brescia's home form reads 7W 7D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Spal have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.14 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Spal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Spal in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 16W 14D 5L in their last 35 games (1.77 PPG), while Spal have gone 7W 14D 14L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Spal away?
Brescia's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.65 PPG; Spal away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Brescia or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Spal in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Brescia's record when hosting Spal specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Brescia
2
Draws
0
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Spal have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Spal 2-2 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Spal?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 59%, Spal 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Brescia) and 35% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Spal in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Brescia's recent matches and 41% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Brescia's recent games and 35% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Spal tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Spal in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Spal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Spal finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.53 xG and Spal 0.86 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against Spal attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 51% | Draw 30% | Spal 19%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 31%, Spal 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Spal's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.