Spal 3-0 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 38%, yet in-form Frosinone provide a compelling counter-argument — this Spal vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Frosinone travel to Stadio Paolo Mazza to take on Spal. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spal stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Spal's home record at Stadio Paolo Mazza: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Frosinone's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Spal's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Spal, 1 for Frosinone and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 0–4 with Frosinone winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Spal in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 58% versus Frosinone 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 44% | Frosinone 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.55 xG and Frosinone 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 0.949 / defence 1.443 | Frosinone attack 0.928 / defence 1.540. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.077. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.540 — this is suppressing Spal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Spal games / 36 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 38% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 33%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Frosinone 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spal at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Frosinone (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Spal 60% | Frosinone 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 38% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Spal 1.55 / Frosinone 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 0.949 / def 1.443 | Frosinone attack 0.928 / def 1.540 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Spal (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Frosinone xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Frosinone kick off?
Spal vs Frosinone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Frosinone?
Spal 3 - 0 Frosinone.
Where is Spal vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Frosinone part of?
Spal vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 38% chance of winning, Frosinone a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Spal and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Spal 0W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Spal and Frosinone in?
Spal (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spal's attack rating (0.95) and Frosinone's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.51
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Spal xG
Total xG
3.00
1.44
Frosinone xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Spal and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Spal and 1.44 for Frosinone, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spal come into this having played 36 games, going 7W 15D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.61 PPG from 36 outings (15W 13D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Spal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Spal's home form reads 3W 8D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Spal are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.58 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 7W 15D 14L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 15W 13D 8L in their last 36 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 0.94 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Spal or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Frosinone in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Frosinone have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Frosinone won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spal's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spal
0
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2023, when Spal 0-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 72%, Frosinone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Spal) and 39% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Spal's games and 50% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Spal's recent games and 39% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Frosinone tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spal run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Frosinone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spal beat Frosinone 3-0 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.55 xG and Frosinone 1.44 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Spal beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Frosinone landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 0.95 / defence 1.44 against Frosinone attack 0.93 / defence 1.54, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 38% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 33%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 44%, Frosinone 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Frosinone's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Spal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.