Ascoli 0-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Ascoli take on Cittadella.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Cittadella travel to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca to take on Ascoli. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 April 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ascoli stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cittadella have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Cittadella have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Ascoli are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ascoli have won 0, Cittadella 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Cittadella winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ascoli in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Cittadella in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 51% versus Cittadella 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 40% | Cittadella 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.98 xG and Cittadella 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.963 / defence 0.971 | Cittadella attack 0.830 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.079. Data: 35 Ascoli games / 35 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 35% | Draw 37% | Cittadella 29%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Cittadella 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 40% | Cittadella 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 35% | Draw 37% | Cittadella 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Ascoli 0.98 / Cittadella 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.963 / def 0.971 | Cittadella attack 0.830 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Cittadella xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Cittadella kick off?
Ascoli vs Cittadella kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Cittadella?
Ascoli 0 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Ascoli vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Cittadella part of?
Ascoli vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 35% chance of winning, Cittadella a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ascoli and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cittadella?
Record (1 meetings): Ascoli 0W | Draws 0 | Cittadella 1W.
What form are Ascoli and Cittadella in?
Ascoli (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Cittadella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ascoli's attack at 0.96x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
37%
2.73
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.85
0.87
Cittadella xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 13.7 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.87 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 17W 7D 11L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Cittadella's form line: 12W 12D 11L from 35 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ascoli on 1.66 PPG, Cittadella on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L).
On the road, Cittadella have gone 6W 7D 4L from 17 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.06 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 17W 7D 11L in their last 35 games (1.66 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 12W 12D 11L in their last 35 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Cittadella away?
Ascoli's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.53 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Cittadella in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Cittadella won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ascoli's record when hosting Cittadella specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ascoli
4
Draws
2
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cittadella?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 0, Cittadella have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Cittadella 0-0 Ascoli.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 47%, Cittadella 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Ascoli and 24% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cittadella in 35%; Cittadella in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ascoli's recent matches and 47% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Ascoli's recent games and 24% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Cittadella tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ascoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 36, as Ascoli and Cittadella drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.98 xG and Cittadella 0.87 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ascoli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cittadella landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.96 / defence 0.97 against Cittadella attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 35% | Draw 37% | Cittadella 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 40%, Cittadella 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Cittadella's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.66 PPG, Cittadella 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.