Avellino 1-3 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Avellino vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi plays host to Avellino versus Frosinone in Serie B (matchday 24). Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Avellino have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Avellino have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Frosinone (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Frosinone have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Frosinone arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Avellino's last 10 home games and Frosinone's last 10 away games) — Avellino have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Frosinone in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Avellino, 1 for Frosinone and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Avellino 0–2 Frosinone — a Frosinone win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Avellino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 56% versus Frosinone 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 52% | Frosinone 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.24 xG and Frosinone 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 1.046 / defence 1.374 | Frosinone attack 1.213 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.052. Frosinone have an above-average attack rating of 1.213, which lifts their away xG to 1.75. Avellino's defence rating of 1.374 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Frosinone's projected output up. Data: built from Avellino's last 23 games and Frosinone's last 61.
Result probabilities: Avellino 27% | Draw 24% | Frosinone 49%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 3.76 | Draw 4.11 | Frosinone 2.04. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Avellino's last 10 home games and Frosinone's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Avellino 60% (last 10 home games) | Frosinone 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 27% | Draw 24% | Frosinone 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Avellino 1.24 / Frosinone 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 1.046 / def 1.374 | Frosinone attack 1.213 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Frosinone xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Avellino vs Frosinone FAQs
What time does Avellino vs Frosinone kick off?
Avellino vs Frosinone kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What was the final score in Avellino vs Frosinone?
Avellino 1 - 3 Frosinone.
Where is Avellino vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Frosinone part of?
Avellino vs Frosinone is a Serie B fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 27% chance of winning, Frosinone a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Avellino and Frosinone will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Avellino vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Avellino's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.21x) against Avellino's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from Avellino's last 23 games and Frosinone's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
27%
3.76
24%
4.11
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.99
1.75
Frosinone xG
3.76
27%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
5%
21.74
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Avellino vs Frosinone Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Avellino and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Avellino and 1.75 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Avellino have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 7W 7D 9L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Frosinone's form line: 13W 7D 3L from 23 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Avellino.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Avellino have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 11 home games (5W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Avellino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Frosinone have gone 6W 4D 1L from their last 11 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Avellino are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.78 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
Avellino (Home) vs Frosinone (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Avellino
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Avellino vs Frosinone Form FAQs
What form are Avellino and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 13W 7D 3L in their last 23 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.64 PPG; Frosinone away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Avellino or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avellino have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Frosinone in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Avellino and Frosinone, the earliest from August 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 11 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Avellino
0
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Avellino vs Frosinone H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Frosinone?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Avellino have won 0, Frosinone have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Frosinone last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2026: Avellino 1-3 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Avellino and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 64%, Frosinone 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Avellino) and 46% (Frosinone). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Avellino have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Avellino vs Frosinone Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Avellino and Frosinone matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Avellino's games and 64% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Avellino and Frosinone matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Avellino's matches and 46% of Frosinone's.
Do Avellino and Frosinone matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Avellino's recent matches and 82% of Frosinone's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Avellino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Avellino 1-3 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.24 xG and Frosinone 1.75 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 1.05 / defence 1.37 against Frosinone attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avellino 27% | Draw 24% | Frosinone 49%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 52%, Frosinone 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avellino's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Avellino (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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