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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Venezia travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Frosinone's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Benito Stirpe this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe.

Venezia — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Venezia's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Frosinone 2.40 PPG, Venezia 2.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Frosinone, 1 for Venezia and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Venezia winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Frosinone trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Venezia trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 53% versus Venezia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 45% | Venezia 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.75 xG and Venezia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.275 / defence 0.827 | Venezia attack 1.410 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.016. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Venezia have an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Frosinone games / 22 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Frosinone 50% | Draw 25% | Venezia 25%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Venezia 4.00. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 40% | Venezia 80% BTTS from recent games.

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