Frosinone 1-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Venezia travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Benito Stirpe this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
Venezia — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Frosinone 2.40 PPG, Venezia 2.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Frosinone, 1 for Venezia and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Venezia trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 53% versus Venezia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 45% | Venezia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.75 xG and Venezia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.275 / defence 0.827 | Venezia attack 1.410 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.016. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Venezia have an above-average attack strength of 1.410 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Frosinone games / 22 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 50% | Draw 25% | Venezia 25%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Venezia 4.00. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 40% | Venezia 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 50% | Draw 25% | Venezia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Frosinone 1.75 / Venezia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.275 / def 0.827 | Venezia attack 1.410 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Venezia xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Venezia kick off?
Frosinone vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Venezia?
Frosinone 1 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Frosinone vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Venezia part of?
Frosinone vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 50% chance of winning, Venezia a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Frosinone and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Venezia?
Record (3 meetings): Frosinone 2W | Draws 0 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Venezia in?
Frosinone (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Venezia (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.27) and Venezia's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.02
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.93
1.19
Venezia xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
4%
22.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.19 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Frosinone's recent record stands at 22W 23D 15L from 60 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 22L across 60 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Frosinone on 1.48 PPG, Venezia on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 11W 12D 6L from 29 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 4W 14D 11L across 29 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Frosinone are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.27 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Venezia in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 22W 23D 15L in their last 60 games (1.48 PPG), while Venezia have gone 19W 19D 22L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Venezia away?
Frosinone's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.55 PPG; Venezia away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Frosinone and Venezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2023, when Frosinone won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Frosinone's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
0
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Frosinone 1-2 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 55%, Venezia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Frosinone) and 52% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Frosinone's games and 62% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Frosinone's recent games and 52% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Venezia tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Venezia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Frosinone 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Frosinone 1-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.75 xG and Venezia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.27 / defence 0.83 against Venezia attack 1.41 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 50% | Draw 25% | Venezia 25%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 45%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.48 PPG, Venezia 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.