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Poisson model rates Padova at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Carrarese travel to Stadio Euganeo to take on Padova. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 10 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Padova have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Padova have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadio Euganeo — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Carrarese — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Padova) versus 1.40 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Padova, 0 for Carrarese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Padova trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Carrarese trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 56% versus Carrarese 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 44% | Carrarese 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.891 / defence 1.250 | Carrarese attack 1.094 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.066. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Padova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Padova games / 61 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Padova 40% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 35%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Carrarese 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Padova 80% | Carrarese 90% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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