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Poisson rates Frosinone at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Frosinone encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 25 as Spezia welcome Frosinone to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Spezia — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Spezia at Stadio Alberto Picco this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Frosinone's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Spezia's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Spezia, 1 for Frosinone and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Frosinone winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Spezia in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Frosinone in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Frosinone 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 37% | Frosinone 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.93 xG and Frosinone 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.802 / defence 1.081 | Frosinone attack 1.299 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.052. Frosinone have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Spezia games / 62 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Spezia 23% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 49%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Frosinone 2.04. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Spezia 70% | Frosinone 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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