Torino 1-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Torino at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino plays host to Torino versus Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 12 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Torino have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's home record at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino than their overall form suggests.
Venezia (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Venezia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Torino. A 1.20 PPG lead over Venezia (1.50 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Torino 0W, Venezia 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 48% versus Venezia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 44% | Venezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.76 xG and Venezia 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.185 / defence 0.886 | Venezia attack 0.597 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.454. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Torino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Torino games / 23 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 59% | Draw 27% | Venezia 14%. Fair-value odds: Torino 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Venezia 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Torino (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Torino are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Torino 60% | Venezia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 59% | Draw 27% | Venezia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Torino 1.76 / Venezia 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 1.185 / def 0.886 | Venezia attack 0.597 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Torino (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Venezia xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Venezia kick off?
Torino vs Venezia kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Venezia?
Torino 1 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Torino vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Venezia part of?
Torino vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 59% chance of winning, Venezia a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Torino and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Torino 0W | Draws 1 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Torino and Venezia in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Venezia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Torino's attack rating (1.19) and Venezia's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.60x) against Torino's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.68
14%
7.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Torino xG
Total xG
2.54
0.77
Venezia xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
7.23
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
42.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Torino and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Torino and 0.77 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Torino's recent record stands at 9W 5D 9L from 23 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 13L across 23 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Torino by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Torino have managed 7W 3D 1L from 11 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Torino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Venezia's away record stands at 2W 3D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Torino are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.87 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Venezia in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while Venezia have gone 4W 6D 13L in their last 23 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Venezia away?
Torino's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 2.18 PPG; Venezia away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Torino
2
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Torino have won 1, Venezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Torino 1-1 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 82% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 54%, Venezia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Torino) and 46% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Venezia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Torino's recent matches and 46% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Torino's recent games and 46% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Venezia tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Venezia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Torino 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Torino 1-2 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.76 xG and Venezia 0.77 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 1.19 / defence 0.89 against Venezia attack 0.60 / defence 1.31, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 59% | Draw 27% | Venezia 14%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 44%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Torino arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Torino (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.