Lazio 3-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lazio vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Lazio welcome Bologna to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, Lazio have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lazio are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lazio register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bologna in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lazio, 1 for Bologna and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lazio in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 61% versus Bologna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lazio 78% | Bologna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.98 xG and Bologna 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.323 / defence 1.168 | Bologna attack 0.776 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.468. Lazio carry an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Lazio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Lazio games / 23 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 51% | Draw 25% | Bologna 24%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 4.17. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 60% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 51% | Draw 25% | Bologna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Lazio 1.98 / Bologna 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.323 / def 1.168 | Bologna attack 0.776 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Lazio (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Bologna xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Bologna kick off?
Lazio vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Lazio 3 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Lazio vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Bologna part of?
Lazio vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 51% chance of winning, Bologna a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lazio and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Bologna?
Record (1 meetings): Lazio 0W | Draws 0 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Lazio and Bologna in?
Lazio (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Bologna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lazio's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
51%
1.97
25%
3.97
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Lazio xG
Total xG
3.31
1.33
Bologna xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
3%
30.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Lazio and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Lazio and 1.33 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Lazio have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 10W 6D 7L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 8W 4D 11L from 23 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lazio on 1.57 PPG, Bologna on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lazio have posted 2.00 PPG from 11 outings (6W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Lazio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bologna have gone 3W 2D 6L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.26 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Bologna in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 10W 6D 7L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while Bologna have gone 8W 4D 11L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Bologna away?
Lazio's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 2.00 PPG; Bologna away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lazio or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bologna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lazio and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lazio
2
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lazio have won 4, Bologna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Bologna 0-2 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 64%, Bologna 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Lazio and 73% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lazio's games and 64% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Lazio's matches and 73% of Bologna's.
Do Lazio and Bologna tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bologna in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lazio run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Bologna 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.98 xG and Bologna 1.33 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.32 / defence 1.17 against Bologna attack 0.78 / defence 1.32, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 51% | Draw 25% | Bologna 24%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 78%, Bologna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Bologna's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lazio 1.57 PPG, Bologna 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.