Hellas Verona 4-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Udinese meet at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hellas Verona are significantly better at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi than their overall form suggests.
Udinese (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hellas Verona, 0 for Udinese and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Udinese — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 77% and Udinese 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 68% | Udinese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.56 xG and Udinese 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.067 / defence 1.105 | Udinese attack 0.824 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.458. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Hellas Verona games / 22 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 41% | Draw 29% | Udinese 30%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Udinese 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 80% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 41% | Draw 29% | Udinese 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Hellas Verona 1.56 / Udinese 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.067 / def 1.105 | Udinese attack 0.824 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Udinese xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Udinese kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Hellas Verona 4 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Udinese part of?
Hellas Verona vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 41% chance of winning, Udinese a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hellas Verona and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
Record (1 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 1 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Udinese in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.82x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 24/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.49
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.89
1.33
Udinese xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.33 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 6D 7L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (5W 9D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hellas Verona's home form reads 6W 2D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Hellas Verona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hellas Verona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.36 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Udinese in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while Udinese have gone 5W 9D 8L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Udinese away?
Hellas Verona's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 2.00 PPG; Udinese away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hellas Verona won 4-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
5
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Udinese have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 1-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Hellas Verona, 50% for Udinese — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Hellas Verona and 50% for Udinese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hellas Verona's games and 50% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Hellas Verona's matches and 50% of Udinese's.
Do Hellas Verona and Udinese tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Udinese in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hellas Verona run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Udinese 4-0 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.56 xG and Udinese 1.33 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Udinese landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against Udinese attack 0.82 / defence 1.30, drawn from 24/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 41% | Draw 29% | Udinese 30%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 68%, Udinese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hellas Verona arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.