Atalanta 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Juventus travel to Gewiss Stadium to take on Atalanta. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta at Gewiss Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gewiss Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventus stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juventus are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atalanta, 0 for Juventus and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Atalanta winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Juventus trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 70% versus Juventus 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 70% | Juventus 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.21 xG and Juventus 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.050 / defence 1.220 | Juventus attack 0.989 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.438. Data: 23 Atalanta games / 24 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 24% | Draw 28% | Juventus 47%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Juventus 2.13. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventus as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 80% | Juventus 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 24% | Draw 28% | Juventus 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Atalanta 1.21 / Juventus 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.050 / def 1.220 | Juventus attack 0.989 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Juventus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Juventus xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Juventus kick off?
Atalanta vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Juventus?
Atalanta 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Atalanta vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Juventus part of?
Atalanta vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 24% chance of winning, Juventus a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Atalanta and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Juventus?
Record (1 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 0 | Juventus 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Juventus in?
Atalanta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Juventus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.05x the league average against Juventus's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
24%
4.12
28%
3.53
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.94
1.74
Juventus xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
4%
23.37
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.74 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atalanta's recent record stands at 12W 7D 4L from 23 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 5L across 23 games — 1.91 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.87 PPG, Juventus on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 3W 4D 4L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.87 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Juventus's away record stands at 6W 3D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.48 scored and 0.83 conceded. Atalanta's scoring rate against Juventus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Juventus in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Juventus in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 12W 7D 4L in their last 23 games (1.87 PPG), while Juventus have gone 13W 5D 5L in their last 23 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.18 PPG; Juventus away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Juventus in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atalanta and Juventus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2025, when Atalanta won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atalanta's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atalanta
6
Draws
2
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 2, Juventus have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Atalanta 0-1 Juventus.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 73%, Juventus 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Atalanta) and 36% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Atalanta's games and 54% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Atalanta's recent games and 36% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Juventus tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Juventus in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta and Juventus finished level at 1-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.21 xG and Juventus 1.74 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Juventus attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 24% | Draw 28% | Juventus 47%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 70%, Juventus 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.87 PPG, Juventus 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.