Venezia 0-2 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Napoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Napoli travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Napoli — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Napoli's 1.70 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Venezia's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Venezia, 1 for Napoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Napoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Venezia trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Napoli trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 59% versus Napoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Napoli 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.88 xG and Napoli 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.856 / defence 1.310 | Napoli attack 0.959 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.521. Data: 22 Venezia games / 23 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 15% | Draw 25% | Napoli 60%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 6.67 | Draw 4.00 | Napoli 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 70% | Napoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 15% | Draw 25% | Napoli 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 51% | xG Venezia 0.88 / Napoli 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.856 / def 1.310 | Napoli attack 0.959 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Napoli (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Napoli xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Napoli kick off?
Venezia vs Napoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Napoli?
Venezia 0 - 2 Napoli.
Where is Venezia vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Napoli part of?
Venezia vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 15% chance of winning, Napoli a 60% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Venezia and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Napoli?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 0 | Napoli 1W.
What form are Venezia and Napoli in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Napoli (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.86) and Napoli's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
15%
6.61
25%
4.05
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.79
1.91
Napoli xG
6.61
15%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
15%
6.76
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
2%
44.68
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Venezia and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Venezia and 1.91 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Napoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Venezia have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 4W 6D 12L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli's form line: 14W 4D 4L from 22 games, 2.09 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 1.27 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Venezia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Venezia have posted 0.82 PPG from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L).
On the road, Napoli have gone 7W 3D 1L from 11 away games — 2.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.86 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Napoli in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Napoli have gone 14W 4D 4L in their last 22 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.82 PPG; Napoli away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Venezia or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Napoli in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Venezia's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Venezia
1
Draws
3
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Napoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 0, Napoli have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Venezia 0-0 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 73%, Napoli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Venezia) and 54% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Napoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Venezia's games and 46% of Napoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Venezia's recent games and 54% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Napoli tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Napoli in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Venezia 0-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.88 xG and Napoli 1.91 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Venezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against Napoli attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 15% | Draw 25% | Napoli 60%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Napoli 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Napoli's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.