Genoa 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Genoa take on Salernitana.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Genoa welcome Salernitana to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 0W 5D 5L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Salernitana — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Genoa at 0.40 PPG versus Salernitana's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Genoa, 1 for Salernitana and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Salernitana winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Salernitana trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 50% versus Salernitana 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 50% | Salernitana 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.02 xG and Salernitana 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.564 / defence 1.096 | Salernitana attack 0.668 / defence 1.604. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.458. Genoa's attack strength of 0.564 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.604 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Genoa games / 22 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 31% | Draw 35% | Salernitana 34%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Salernitana 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 40% | Salernitana 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 31% | Draw 35% | Salernitana 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Genoa 1.02 / Salernitana 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.564 / def 1.096 | Salernitana attack 0.668 / def 1.604 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Salernitana xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Salernitana kick off?
Genoa vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Salernitana?
Genoa 1 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Genoa vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Salernitana part of?
Genoa vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 31% chance of winning, Salernitana a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Genoa and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Salernitana?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 1W.
What form are Genoa and Salernitana in?
Genoa (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Salernitana (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.56x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.19
35%
2.87
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.08
1.07
Salernitana xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Genoa and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Genoa and 1.07 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Genoa have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 1W 11D 10L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salernitana's form line: 3W 3D 16L from 22 games, 0.55 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 0.64 PPG, Salernitana on 0.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Genoa have posted 0.50 PPG from 10 outings (0W 5D 5L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.73 scored and 2.36 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 1W 11D 10L in their last 22 games (0.64 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 3W 3D 16L in their last 22 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Salernitana away?
Salernitana's away record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.50 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Genoa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Genoa's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Genoa
1
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Salernitana?
From 4 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Salernitana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Salernitana 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Salernitana?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 40%, Salernitana 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Genoa and 70% for Salernitana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 60% of games; Salernitana in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Genoa's recent matches and 50% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Genoa's matches and 70% of Salernitana's.
Do Genoa and Salernitana tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Salernitana finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.02 xG and Salernitana 1.07 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.56 / defence 1.10 against Salernitana attack 0.67 / defence 1.60, drawn from 24/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 31% | Draw 35% | Salernitana 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 50%, Salernitana 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 0.64 PPG, Salernitana 0.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.