Venezia 1-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Venezia and Genoa meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genoa have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Venezia against 0.50 for Genoa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Venezia — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Genoa — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 58% versus Genoa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Genoa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.31 xG and Genoa 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.784 / defence 1.366 | Genoa attack 0.579 / defence 1.465. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.415. Venezia's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.465 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Venezia games / 25 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 39% | Draw 32% | Genoa 29%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Genoa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 60% | Genoa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 39% | Draw 32% | Genoa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Venezia 1.31 / Genoa 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.784 / def 1.366 | Genoa attack 0.579 / def 1.465 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Venezia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Genoa xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Genoa kick off?
Venezia vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Genoa?
Venezia 1 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Venezia vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Genoa part of?
Venezia vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 39% chance of winning, Genoa a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Venezia and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 1 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Venezia and Genoa in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Genoa (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.58x) against Venezia's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
39%
2.59
32%
3.12
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.43
1.12
Genoa xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Venezia and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Venezia and 1.12 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia's recent record stands at 5W 6D 13L from 24 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 1W 12D 11L across 24 games — 0.62 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Venezia against 0.62 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 2W 3D 7L from 12 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 1W 6D 5L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.88 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Genoa in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 5W 6D 13L in their last 24 games (0.88 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 12D 11L in their last 24 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Genoa away?
Venezia's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.75 PPG; Genoa away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
3
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Genoa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Genoa 2-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 67%, Genoa 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Venezia) and 50% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Venezia's games and 58% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Venezia's recent games and 50% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Genoa tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Genoa in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Genoa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia and Genoa finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.31 xG and Genoa 1.12 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.78 / defence 1.37 against Genoa attack 0.58 / defence 1.47, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 39% | Draw 32% | Genoa 29%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Genoa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 0.88 PPG, Genoa 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.