Sassuolo 2-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Sassuolo welcome AS Roma to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sassuolo have posted 3W 3D 4L at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sassuolo 1.10 PPG, AS Roma 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sassuolo, 1 for AS Roma and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sassuolo trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
AS Roma trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 79% and AS Roma 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 79% | AS Roma 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.46 xG and AS Roma 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.929 / defence 1.423 | AS Roma attack 1.101 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.441. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Sassuolo games / 24 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 23% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 54%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | AS Roma 1.85. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 80% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 23% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG Sassuolo 1.46 / AS Roma 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.929 / def 1.423 | AS Roma attack 1.101 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
2.25
AS Roma xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs AS Roma kick off?
Sassuolo vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Sassuolo 2 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Sassuolo vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs AS Roma part of?
Sassuolo vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 23% chance of winning, AS Roma a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sassuolo and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Sassuolo 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Sassuolo and AS Roma in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sassuolo's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 1-3 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
23%
4.39
23%
4.27
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
1 – 3
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.72
2.25
AS Roma xG
4.39
23%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
10%
9.54
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
2%
41.84
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sassuolo and 2.25 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 8D 9L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.62 PPG from 24 outings (12W 3D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sassuolo's home form reads 3W 3D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.36 points per game from 11 outings (5W 0D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.67 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Defensively: AS Roma in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 games (1.21 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 12W 3D 9L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.09 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, AS Roma in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and AS Roma runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Sassuolo's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sassuolo
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 1, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sassuolo at 73%, AS Roma at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sassuolo and 73% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Sassuolo's games and 64% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sassuolo's matches and 73% of AS Roma's.
Do Sassuolo and AS Roma tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sassuolo and AS Roma share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 25, as Sassuolo and AS Roma drew 2-2 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.46 xG and AS Roma 2.25 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.93 / defence 1.42 against AS Roma attack 1.10 / defence 1.38, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 23% | Draw 23% | AS Roma 54%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 79%, AS Roma 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.