Empoli 1-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Cagliari travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Carlo Castellani this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Empoli at 1.10 PPG versus Cagliari's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Empoli have won 1, Cagliari 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 2–0 with Empoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 92% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Empoli 71% and Cagliari 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 67% | Cagliari 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.59 xG and Cagliari 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.070 / defence 1.759 | Cagliari attack 0.644 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.458. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Empoli games / 24 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 35% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 38%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Cagliari 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 80% | Cagliari 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 35% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Empoli 1.59 / Cagliari 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 1.070 / def 1.759 | Cagliari attack 0.644 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Cagliari xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Cagliari kick off?
Empoli vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Cagliari?
Empoli 1 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Empoli vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Cagliari part of?
Empoli vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 35% chance of winning, Cagliari a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Empoli and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Empoli and Cagliari in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Empoli's attack rating (1.07) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.72
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Empoli xG
Total xG
3.24
1.65
Cagliari xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
8%
12.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Empoli and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Empoli and 1.65 for Cagliari, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli come into this having played 24 games, going 8W 6D 10L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.83 PPG from 24 outings (4W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Empoli's home form reads 3W 1D 8L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.25 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.00 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Cagliari in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 4W 8D 12L in their last 24 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Cagliari away?
Empoli's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.83 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Empoli
3
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Cagliari?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, Cagliari have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Empoli 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Cagliari?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 83%, Cagliari 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 92% for Empoli and 58% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Cagliari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Empoli's games and 42% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 92% of Empoli's matches and 58% of Cagliari's.
Do Empoli and Cagliari tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Cagliari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 25, as Empoli and Cagliari drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.59 xG and Cagliari 1.65 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.07 / defence 1.76 against Cagliari attack 0.64 / defence 1.32, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 35% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 38%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 67%, Cagliari 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Empoli arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.