Empoli 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 35%, yet in-form Genoa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Empoli vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Empoli and Genoa meet at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Empoli's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Empoli's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genoa (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Genoa's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Genoa are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Empoli 1–1 Genoa — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Genoa — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus Genoa 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 37% | Genoa 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Empoli surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Genoa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.19 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.826 / defence 1.230 | Genoa attack 0.873 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.090. Empoli's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Genoa's projected output up. Data: built from Empoli's last 60 games and Genoa's last 22.
Result probabilities: Empoli 35% | Draw 30% | Genoa 35%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.83 | Draw 3.33 | Genoa 2.89. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Empoli 35% and Genoa 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Empoli 20% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 35% | Draw 30% | Genoa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Empoli 1.19 / Genoa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.826 / def 1.230 | Genoa attack 0.873 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Empoli and Genoa level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Genoa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Empoli vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Empoli vs Genoa kick off?
Empoli vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Genoa?
Empoli 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Empoli vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Genoa part of?
Empoli vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 35% chance of winning, Genoa a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Empoli and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Empoli vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Empoli's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.87x) against Empoli's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Empoli's last 60 games and Genoa's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
35%
2.83
30%
3.33
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.36
1.17
Genoa xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Empoli vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Empoli and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Empoli and 1.17 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 18D 28L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.70 PPG from 60 outings (28W 18D 14L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Empoli's home form reads 10W 6D 14L across their last 30 home games, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 30 away games (12W 7D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.28 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Genoa
Blended
Empoli (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Empoli
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Empoli vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Empoli and Genoa in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 14W 18D 28L in their last 60 games (1.00 PPG), while Genoa have gone 28W 18D 14L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.20 PPG; Genoa away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Empoli or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Genoa in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Empoli
5
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Empoli vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Genoa?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Empoli have won 0, Genoa have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2025: Genoa 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 33%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Empoli) and 50% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Empoli have failed to score in 43% of games; Genoa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Empoli vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Empoli and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Empoli's recent matches and 50% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Empoli and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Empoli's recent games and 50% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Empoli's recent matches and 63% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Empoli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Genoa finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.19 xG and Genoa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Empoli fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.83 / defence 1.23 against Genoa attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 35% | Draw 30% | Genoa 35%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 37%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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