Empoli 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 February 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Empoli have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Empoli) versus 1.40 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Empoli, 1 for Fiorentina and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Empoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Empoli trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fiorentina trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus Fiorentina 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 37% | Fiorentina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.06 xG and Fiorentina 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.746 / defence 1.114 | Fiorentina attack 0.918 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.112. Empoli's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Empoli games / 62 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 32% | Draw 32% | Fiorentina 36%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Fiorentina 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 20% | Fiorentina 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 32% | Draw 32% | Fiorentina 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Empoli 1.06 / Fiorentina 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.746 / def 1.114 | Fiorentina attack 0.918 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Fiorentina xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Fiorentina kick off?
Empoli vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Empoli 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Empoli vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Fiorentina part of?
Empoli vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 32% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Empoli and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Fiorentina?
Record (5 meetings): Empoli 2W | Draws 2 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Empoli and Fiorentina in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Empoli's attack at 0.75x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
32%
3.14
32%
3.08
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.20
1.14
Fiorentina xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Empoli and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Empoli and 1.14 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli's recent record stands at 15W 19D 28L from 62 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 21L across 62 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 10W 7D 14L from 31 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 10W 7D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.44 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 15W 19D 28L in their last 62 games (1.03 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 26W 15D 21L in their last 62 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Fiorentina away?
Empoli's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.19 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
4
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, Fiorentina have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 32%, Fiorentina 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Empoli) and 36% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 45% of games; Fiorentina in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Empoli's recent matches and 45% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Empoli's recent games and 36% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Fiorentina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.06 xG and Fiorentina 1.14 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.75 / defence 1.11 against Fiorentina attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 32% | Draw 32% | Fiorentina 36%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 37%, Fiorentina 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.