Torino 0-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Torino (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Torino face Salernitana.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Torino welcome Salernitana to Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 February 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Salernitana have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Torino are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Torino have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Salernitana have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with Torino winning.
The historical record gives Torino a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Torino trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Salernitana trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 42% versus Salernitana 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 34% | Salernitana 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.80 xG and Salernitana 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.019 / defence 0.781 | Salernitana attack 0.837 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.091. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Torino's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Torino's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Torino games / 60 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 62% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 13%. Fair-value odds: Torino 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Salernitana 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Torino (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Torino 30% | Salernitana 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 62% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG Torino 1.80 / Salernitana 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 1.019 / def 0.781 | Salernitana attack 0.837 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Torino (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Torino xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Salernitana xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Salernitana kick off?
Torino vs Salernitana kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs Salernitana?
Torino 0 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Torino vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Salernitana part of?
Torino vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 62% chance of winning, Salernitana a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Torino and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Salernitana?
Record (5 meetings): Torino 3W | Draws 2 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Torino and Salernitana in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Torino's attack rating (1.02) and Salernitana's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
62%
1.61
25%
4.02
13%
7.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Torino xG
Total xG
2.51
0.71
Salernitana xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
7.66
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
2%
46.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Torino and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Torino and 0.71 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Torino come into this having played 59 games, going 22W 18D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.92 PPG from 59 outings (11W 21D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Torino's home form reads 10W 11D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.69 points per game from 29 outings (3W 11D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Torino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Torino are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.14 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Torino have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 22W 18D 19L in their last 59 games (1.42 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 11W 21D 27L in their last 59 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Salernitana away?
Torino's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.41 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Torino or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Salernitana in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Torino won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Torino's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Torino
3
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Torino have won 3, Salernitana have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Torino 0-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Salernitana?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torino see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 38%, Salernitana 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Torino) and 52% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 34% of games; Salernitana in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Torino's recent matches and 55% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Torino's recent games and 52% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and Salernitana tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Torino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 23, as Torino and Salernitana drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.80 xG and Salernitana 0.71 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Torino fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 1.02 / defence 0.78 against Salernitana attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 62% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 13%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 34%, Salernitana 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salernitana's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Torino arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.