Napoli 1-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Napoli host Genoa at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Napoli — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli's home record at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Napoli at 1.10 PPG versus Genoa's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Napoli register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Genoa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Napoli, 0 for Genoa and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Napoli in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 44% versus Genoa 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 54% | Genoa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.29 xG and Genoa 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.965 / defence 1.076 | Genoa attack 0.783 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.105. Data: 61 Napoli games / 24 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 43% | Draw 31% | Genoa 25%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Genoa 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Napoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Napoli 70% | Genoa 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 43% | Draw 31% | Genoa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Napoli 1.29 / Genoa 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 0.965 / def 1.076 | Genoa attack 0.783 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Napoli (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Genoa xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Genoa kick off?
Napoli vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Genoa?
Napoli 1 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Napoli vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Genoa part of?
Napoli vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 43% chance of winning, Genoa a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Napoli and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Genoa?
Record (3 meetings): Napoli 2W | Draws 1 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Napoli and Genoa in?
Napoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Napoli's attack at 0.96x the league average against Genoa's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
43%
2.30
31%
3.21
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.22
0.93
Genoa xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
7%
14.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Napoli and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Napoli and 0.93 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 38W 11D 12L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 27W 19D 15L from 61 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Napoli have posted 2.07 PPG from 30 outings (19W 5D 6L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 11W 8D 11L from 30 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.25 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Genoa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Genoa in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 38W 11D 12L in their last 61 games (2.05 PPG), while Genoa have gone 27W 19D 15L in their last 61 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Genoa away?
Napoli's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.07 PPG; Genoa away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Napoli or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Genoa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Napoli go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Napoli
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Napoli have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Genoa 2-3 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Genoa?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 50%, Genoa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Napoli) and 47% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Genoa in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Napoli's recent matches and 47% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Napoli's recent games and 47% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Genoa tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Genoa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Napoli and Genoa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli and Genoa finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.29 xG and Genoa 0.93 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Genoa attack 0.78 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 43% | Draw 31% | Genoa 25%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 54%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.