Juventus 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Juventus welcome Empoli to Allianz Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus at Allianz Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium.
Empoli — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Empoli have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Juventus are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Juventus, 2 for Empoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Juventus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Juventus in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Empoli in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 34% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventus 37% | Empoli 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.59 xG and Empoli 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.085 / defence 0.631 | Empoli attack 0.760 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.090. Juventus's defence rating of 0.631 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Juventus games / 59 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 63% | Draw 26% | Empoli 11%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.59 | Draw 3.85 | Empoli 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (63%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Empoli's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventus at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 40% | Empoli 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 63% | Draw 26% | Empoli 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 33% | xG Juventus 1.59 / Empoli 0.52 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.085 / def 0.631 | Empoli attack 0.760 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Juventus (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.52
Empoli xG
33%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Empoli kick off?
Juventus vs Empoli kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Empoli?
Juventus 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Juventus vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Empoli part of?
Juventus vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 63% chance of winning, Empoli a 11% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Juventus and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Empoli?
Record (5 meetings): Juventus 3W | Draws 0 | Empoli 2W.
What form are Juventus and Empoli in?
Juventus (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Empoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.08x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 0.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (15.3%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
63%
1.59
26%
3.85
11%
8.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.11
0.52
Empoli xG
1.59
63%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
8.94
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
37%
2.69
2%
43.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 10.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Juventus and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Juventus and 0.52 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventus come into this having played 59 games, going 38W 10D 11L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.00 PPG from 59 outings (14W 17D 28L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Juventus's home form reads 21W 5D 3L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.79 points per game from 29 outings (4W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventus are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.86 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Empoli in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 38W 10D 11L in their last 59 games (2.10 PPG), while Empoli have gone 14W 17D 28L in their last 59 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Empoli away?
Juventus's home record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.34 PPG; Empoli away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Juventus or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Empoli in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when Juventus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventus's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Juventus
2
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Empoli have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Juventus 4-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Empoli?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 34%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Juventus) and 34% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Juventus's recent matches and 48% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Juventus's recent games and 34% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Empoli tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Empoli in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus and Empoli finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.59 xG and Empoli 0.52 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.08 / defence 0.63 against Empoli attack 0.76 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 63% | Draw 26% | Empoli 11%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 63%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 37%, Empoli 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.