Juventus 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Juventus welcome Empoli to Allianz Stadium in Serie A (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Juventus have gone 8W 2D 0L — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juventus at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Empoli — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Empoli have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Juventus are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Juventus have won 3, Empoli 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Juventus 2–0 Empoli — a Juventus win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Juventus in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Empoli in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 34% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventus 37% | Empoli 37%). Note also that Empoli surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Juventus recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.59 xG and Empoli 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.085 / defence 0.631 | Empoli attack 0.760 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.090. Empoli's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.52. Juventus have a tight defence (rating 0.631), which is pulling Empoli's projected output down. Data: built from Juventus's last 59 games and Empoli's last 59.
Result probabilities: Juventus 63% | Draw 26% | Empoli 11%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.59 | Draw 3.85 | Empoli 8.94. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (63%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Empoli's lower xG of 0.52 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventus at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Juventus's last 10 home games and Empoli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juventus 40% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 22 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 63% | Draw 26% | Empoli 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Juventus 1.59 / Empoli 0.52 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.085 / def 0.631 | Empoli attack 0.760 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Juventus (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.52
Empoli xG
33%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juventus vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Juventus vs Empoli kick off?
Juventus vs Empoli kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Empoli?
Juventus 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Juventus vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Empoli part of?
Juventus vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 22) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 63% chance of winning, Empoli a 11% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Juventus and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Juventus vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.08x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 0.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Juventus's last 59 games and Empoli's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (15.3%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
63%
1.59
26%
3.85
11%
8.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.11
0.52
Empoli xG
1.59
63%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
8.94
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
37%
2.69
2%
43.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 10.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juventus vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Juventus and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Juventus and 0.52 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventus come into this having played 59 games, going 38W 10D 11L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.00 PPG from 59 outings (14W 17D 28L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.10 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Juventus's home form reads 21W 5D 3L across their last 29 home games, a 2.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventus are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.86 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Empoli
Blended
Juventus (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juventus
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Juventus vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Juventus and Empoli in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 38W 10D 11L in their last 59 games (2.10 PPG), while Empoli have gone 14W 17D 28L in their last 59 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Empoli away?
Juventus's home record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.34 PPG; Empoli away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Juventus or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Empoli in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 2 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Oct 2022, when Juventus won Juventus 4-0 Empoli.
Juventus's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Juventus
2
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Juventus vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Empoli?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Juventus have won 4, Empoli have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2025: Juventus 4-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Empoli?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 34%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Juventus) and 34% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juventus vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juventus and Empoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Juventus's recent matches and 48% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juventus and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Juventus's recent games and 34% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Juventus's recent matches and 69% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus and Empoli finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.59 xG and Empoli 0.52 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.08 / defence 0.63 against Empoli attack 0.76 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 63% | Draw 26% | Empoli 11%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 63%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 37%, Empoli 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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