Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fiorentina at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare to take on Lecce. The game is scheduled for Friday 2 February 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lecce — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Lecce are significantly better at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fiorentina — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Lecce have won 0, Fiorentina 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lecce in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 54% versus Fiorentina 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecce 34% | Fiorentina 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 0.89 xG and Fiorentina 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.785 / defence 1.220 | Fiorentina attack 0.932 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.084. Lecce's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Lecce games / 59 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 26% | Draw 32% | Fiorentina 43%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Fiorentina 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lecce 50% | Fiorentina 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare • Kick-off: Friday 2 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 26% | Draw 32% | Fiorentina 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Lecce 0.89 / Fiorentina 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.785 / def 1.220 | Fiorentina attack 0.932 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Fiorentina xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Fiorentina kick off?
Lecce vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 February 2024 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Lecce 3 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Lecce vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Fiorentina part of?
Lecce vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 26% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lecce and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Fiorentina?
Record (3 meetings): Lecce 0W | Draws 2 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Lecce and Fiorentina in?
Lecce (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lecce's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
26%
3.90
32%
3.17
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.13
1.23
Fiorentina xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.7 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lecce and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Lecce and 1.23 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecce's recent record stands at 12W 21D 26L from 59 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 19L across 59 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 7W 12D 10L from 29 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 10W 7D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Lecce are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.39 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 12W 21D 26L in their last 59 games (0.97 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 25W 15D 19L in their last 59 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 1.14 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lecce's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lecce
3
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Lecce have won 2, Fiorentina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Lecce 1-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 62%, Fiorentina 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lecce) and 34% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Lecce have failed to score in 28% of games; Fiorentina in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lecce's recent matches and 45% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lecce's recent games and 34% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecce and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecce defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Fiorentina 3-2 at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 0.89 xG and Fiorentina 1.23 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lecce beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.79 / defence 1.22 against Fiorentina attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 26% | Draw 32% | Fiorentina 43%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Lecce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 34%, Fiorentina 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Lecce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.